Max Verstappen has made his peace with Azerbaijan and has gone on an absurd recovery since his retirement in Australia. Not only is the defending champion establishing himself as the season's big favorite, but the position comes at a delicate moment for Charles Leclerc and Ferrari. Once again, the Italians have been betrayed by themselves and are now fighting against time
If I've ever been unhappy, I can't remember. This amusing social media premise applies perfectly to the moment experienced by Red Bull and Max Verstappen in F1 2022. After all, the enormous mistrust that once surrounded the taurine garages seems to have changed sides. If at the beginning of the season the energetic guys were worried about reliability - to the point where the Dutchman said that the championship didn't matter, because one had to finish the races first -, the drama is now all Ferrari's and at the worst possible time. That's because the moment is the world champion's. Once again, Verstappen took advantage of an opponent's failure to account. What's more, the victory in Baku not only made him break a kind of Azeri curse, but now puts him in the position of the man to beat. That's what favoritism is all about.
Sunday's triumph was also his fourth in five races. It is just another part of Max's great recovery this season. Since the pitstop in Australia - where he publicly charged Red Bull for more consistent equipment - 125 points have been scored. These numbers gain solidity in the difference of what Charles Leclerc did. In the same period, the Monegasque from Ferrari lost the lead in the World Championship and obtained only 45 points. Therefore, it is an uncomfortable deficit of 80 points.
The point is that Red Bull improved its car during this time. It knew how to find the flaws quickly and fix them. It delivered a revised RB18 in Imole and, later on, applied small updates to generate speed and consistency. But, more than that, the Taurus also abused the chances that came their way. They made the right decisions in the pit-wall and dared. And the fact that they have a Sergio Pérez who wins races is even more impactful.
Only it is essential to put Ferrari on that horizon. The Italians also made fundamental changes to their F1-75. The red car has gained straight-line speed and tire feel. Still, it is a model that enjoys medium- and low-speed cornering. But there is one Achilles heel that Red Bull takes good advantage of: reliability. And that now seems totally out of the Italians' control.
Once again, Maranello has dug its own grave. Because once again it faced a problem in the power unit while leading a race - it is the second failure in three rounds. The same had already afflicted Leclerc in Spain, where the reds were clearly in the lead. In Baku, the scenario was a little different, but there was a chance to try for victory, even though Carlos Sainz was out of action - a hydraulic failure took the Spaniard out.
Despite his sensational pole position on Saturday, Charles started badly and lost the lead to Perez in the very first meters. Then he had to fend off Verstappen, who was third. Sainz was fourth, but without the same pace as the leaders. And even with a superior straight line speed, Max was finding it difficult to pass the Monegasque. It was like this until lap 9, when Carlos stopped the #55 Ferrari on the track.
With the virtual safety-car, Leclerc was called to the pits, while Red Bull kept its duo on track. The decision paid off, because the Ferrari driver ended up putting himself in front after the rivals' pits. It is hard to know if history would treat the Ferraris' call for a set-up, because there was no time. On the 21st lap, Charles' engine blew, opening the way for the energetics. However, up to that point, the race pace of the F1-75 #16 was very strong.
Now, it is tinny to realize how the championship has turned around for the Ferrari drivers. The performance is there, as Leclerc has been on a string of poles and was leading the race in Azerbaijan when the engine presented problems. In Barcelona, the performance put the Reds as favorites. Monaco was the exception on the reliability issue, because Ferrari threw away that victory in the pitstop mess it had.
In any case, the conclusion is: Ferrari is on the ropes on its own, by its stumbles alone. And that must hurt. "It's certainly a concern. We said before that reliability is a key factor in the battle, because with regard to performance, we worked very hard to develop the car. But we have shown that we are not totally reliable. We still have work to do, and we need to stay focused and try to respond to the problems. If we do that, we will be stronger in the future," said Ferrari boss Mattia Binotto.
"First of all, we have to analyze and understand what happened today, because not all problems are the same. Maybe some of them are possible to solve quickly. Honestly, I don't know. Let's take time to analyze and understand. The abandonment of Carlos was hydraulic, it was not the same as Barcelona. Maybe it is easy to solve. We have to remain patient and understand", he continued.
Binotto talks about time and patience. But time is something Ferrari doesn't have. First, because the calendar features a race in seven days - and even though there are 14 races left to go, it goes without saying that any more failures could be the death knell of any title ambition. Second, the breakdowns put the team under enormous pressure, not only the pressure that naturally affects them, but also the pressure that determines the use of the power units. And then a new drama begins.
Finally, perhaps it is important to change the mentality. The other day, Binotto said that the team's goal was to be competitive, not to win the championship. Engineer that he is, he justifies the colder speech, but maybe Ferrari needs a little more blood in its veins.
Formula One returns next week, June 17-19, in Montreal, with the Canadian Grand Prix.