As predicted, Ferrari did very well in the tight Hungaroring. And not only that: the performance in qualifying and race pace was astonishing and it is symptomatic that Max Verstappen is hoping for rain to fight the Italians at the Hungarian GP, the last before the European summer break for Formula 1
It was no wonder Mattia Binotto was looking forward to the Hungarian F1 round - especially after the French GP fiasco. It turns out that the tight Hungaroring has all the characteristics that best suit F1-75. The Budapest circuit demands downforce, traction, and tire care. In other words, the three pillars of success for the Italians' 2022 project. Therefore, it was not a surprise the team's lead in the opening activities for the 13th round of the season: Carlos Sainz came out on top in TL1, while Charles Leclerc led the complementary session. And more than that, the strong performance in all conditions was impressive. So, one can say that Ferrari is the favorite - so much so that Max Verstappen has already resorted to the rain to try to even the odds.
In fact, the #1 Red Bull is right. Especially in practice 2, the Ferrari performance was astonishing. The qualifying pace continues to be Maranello's great weapon, even though the Austrian rival and even the intruder McLaren were able to get close on the soft compounds (C4). If the grid was decided on a dry track, it would not be a surprise to see a closer race. Only this scenario changes in race performance. With medium tires (C3), which should be the race tires, Ferrari proved to be unbeatable. The Monegasque set a pace almost 0.7 seconds better than his opponents.
There are other aspects that ratify Ferrari's favoritism. The hot weather pleases the red car - and the scorching Friday in Hungary corroborates this thesis -, but a drop in temperature is not a problem either, as seen in the race in Austria and even in France last week. One of the strongest points of this set-up is the better tire management, almost independent of the thermometer. The new floorpan, used already in Paul Ricard, is also a powerful asset, because it achieved the goal of generating downforce and reducing bouncing.
This way, Sainz and Leclerc have a huge opportunity ahead of them to leave the vacation with a top result and, perhaps, still in the F1 2022 race. "The focus was on setting up the car today," the Monegasque told. "We did some race simulations, since we might not be able to do that in the third free practice tomorrow because of the rain forecast."
Charles' impression was shared by Sainz. "It was an interesting Friday. The car was very good as soon as we left the garage in TL1 and we were able to do some very good laps. In TL2, we tried some changes in the setup to evaluate which direction was best for tomorrow and for the race," reported the Spaniard.
"We are well placed in terms of car balance and pace. It looks like tomorrow will be on a wet track, so we will have to adapt to the conditions. Today was a positive day for the team, and I'm looking forward to the rest of the weekend," he added.
It's true: there is a forecast of heavy rain for Saturday and that already appears as a lifeline for many people, but not necessarily for Ferrari. With a car so well tuned for a dry track, bad weather is not exactly the best news for the Italians, because there is always an ungrateful touch of fate in everything. And another thing, Red Bull, Mercedes, McLaren and even Alpine have a chance to get into a fight for pole position - the Canadian qualifying is there and won't let it lie.
Therefore, Taurinos are very much hoping for a downpour and a dose of chaos. Even though the energy squad took to Hungary a revised rear wing and a small change in the floor, all in the name of downforce, the difference in race pace was still too big for Ferrari. Hence the desire for the uproar is explained. "Ferrari has more downforce than we do. In Budapest, there are only curves and straights. Not enough to play to our strengths. And only rain can help us," said the reigning world champion.
"We will work hard overnight to try to narrow this gap as much as possible. In the dry we can work hard to compete, but it can be a different story in the rain," reiterated the driver, who leads the Drivers' World Championship with 233 points, against Leclerc's 170.
And even though water serves as an element of unpredictability, it is not a guarantee that Red Bull can take full advantage of it. The rain that poured down on the Spielberg circuit before the Austrian GP helped to lower the temperature, and that affected the performance of the RB18 that seems to dislike cold weather - that is a possible scenario in Budapest as well. Hence, the caution of the Taurinos.
But if rain is a point that weighs on both sides, there are other ingredients that can spice up the race. The case is that Ferrari needs a significant result to keep dreaming and the ideal would also be to count on some allies - one of them is certainly the chance of a collapse of rivals due to the weather conditions. But there are still others. In Hungary, McLaren could become that key piece.
Lando Norris and Daniel Ricciardo had the best Friday of the season. The British team promoted an interesting package of updates in Paul Ricard, which is now starting to have more effect. Wings and floors helped to improve performance, as well as a high aerodynamic load. Norris placed himself between Leclerc and Sainz and ahead of Verstappen in second position in TL2, while the Australian was fifth with a Fernando Alonso trailing him.
"Things seem to be going well. The car is coming along well, it seems to have married the characteristics of the track a bit more as well. But we are also always faster in TL2 than in qualifying," the Englishman rightly pointed out.
"We know that everybody, especially Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes usually grow into Saturday. I think we are okay, the car is in a reasonable condition for the weekend. I think a little better than we were at Paul Ricard. I don't expect to fight for pole, but to be in a better position than in France," he added.
Within this script, Mercedes should also not be ruled out, despite the complicated Friday that it experienced, and not even Alpine. In other words, the Hungarian weekend, despite the expectation of rain, starts promisingly for Ferrari again - it remains to be seen whether the team will take advantage of the new chance.
GRANDE PRÊMIO follows LIVE and INREAL TIME all the activities of the Hungarian GP weekend. On Saturday, TL3 is scheduled for 8am (GMT-3), while qualifying starts at 11am.